Whats so special about Del Mar?

DEL MAR DREAMIN’

Is it a racetrack Thats open 8 weeks a year?

Is it that beautiful Ocean and Beach?

Is it the great schools,Great weather or that Southern California beach town experience?

NOPE – ITS THE “IMMUNE HOUSING ” THAT HAS HAD ALMOST NO EFFECT FROM THE GREAT REAL ESTATE BUBBLE!

Lets take a example here:
http://www.redfin.com/CA/Del-Mar/2593-Via-Pisa-92014/home/4435479


Decent 2500 sq ft del mar house with some views and also some street noise. modestly renovated to a contemporary style.

what due you think is the true value of this home?

owner has it listed for a bubbly 1.175 m

it sold for 800k end of 2002
it sold for 535k end of 1998.

here is the value – lets take average crazy appreciation during this time between sales in 98 and 2002 – lets round it to a approx value of 650k on 01/01/2000. Lets figure 100k in renovations (take a third of that, because that is the most any renovation is worth and that is being generous, All homes need renovation every 10 years or so anyway- it is part of being a homeowner)

The California Dreamin’ value indicator:

Value formula is approximate pricing on 01/01/2000 plus 1/3 of all renovations since 01/2000

current value is :
650k on 01/01/2000
+ 33k(100K) for renovations

value is 683k . that is what this home is worth -700k tops.

And it may take 3-7 years for this to play out . but it will. It always has. It is The golden rule of bubbles-just like the laws of Physics.

to quote Mike from the movie Rounders:
” Listen, here’s the thing. If you can’t spot the sucker in your first half hour at the table, then you ARE the sucker “

3 Responses to “Whats so special about Del Mar?”

  1. tbgpalisades says:

    You’re correct on the “renovations – most Californians use the term for what is mostly just “maintenance”. And, $.30 on the dollar is reality.

  2. PF Flyer says:

    This site looks good…congrats. Could you maybe write about zip codes 92091, 92109, and 92037? These places seem to want to defy gravity. Thanks.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Yes .30 on the dollar is maintenance- even if that maint just happens to be spending a couple hundred grand updatating a 40 year old to modern day.

    Rancho Santa fe and La Jolla coming up……. those are two super mega bubbles- so many examples of delusion it will make you puke

    But one of my favs is also Carmel Valley – that will be coming up too.

    thanks , Im working on it.

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