“take a look at the great schools”
“how about that weather”
Carmel Valley is pretty much the definition of Southern California Mcmansion bubbleville. If you looked this up in a dictionary it would say=Carmel Valley. A top ranked school system , easy access location , strong Asian demographics and mostly post 1999 construction has created a overall tulip mania mentality of : “high ranking schools equals 200k value premium over similar sized homes in neighboring areas”
Yes Carmel Valley is all of that and more . Why would you want to pay insane bubble prices for homes that all look the same? Its pretty sad actually. I guess if it was a great deal and priced low- combined with the local ameneties-then I could possibly see the reasoning for this -But not right now in the soon to be crashing Carmel valley bubble!
Lets take a look at Carmel Valley :
Yes it would seem that Carmel Valley has basically stayed bubble inflated -But lets take a more recent look pricing activity:
Seems like we have a more recent trend here- List prices have been coming down substantially with sales price per st foot holding steady to slightly down- guess where this trend is going?
|Homes Sold||Sep ’11||vs. Prev. Month||vs. Prev. Year|
|# Homes Sold||58||-6.5%||-19.4%|
|Median Sold Price||$688K||-15.9%||-12.3%|
|Median Sold $/SqFt.||$318||-1.2%||-4.2%|
|% Sale to List||96.1%||0.1%||0.2%|
|Lot Size:||5,663 Sq. Ft.|
|Property Type:||Residential, Detached|
“Come take a look at this great home! This 2679 sqft Montecito home with bright open floor-plan, gorgeous westward view to Torrey Pines preserve, and is ready for its new owners. Short walk to shopping, East Ocean Air School and 3 parks! ”
|Oct 10, 2011||Price Changed||$847,000||—||SANDICOR #110054758|
|Oct 07, 2011||Price Changed||$859,876||—||SANDICOR #110054758|
|Oct 03, 2011||Price Changed||$865,876||—||SANDICOR #110054758|
|Sep 29, 2011||Listed (Active)||$869,876||—||SANDICOR #110054758|
|May 09, 2005||Sold (Public Records)||$1,050,000||16.1%/yr||Public Records|
|Mar 23, 2000||Sold (Public Records)||$489,000||—||Public Records|
How are these bubble owners feeling right now? Bought in 2005- for $1.050 , better get out before its too late. At least they are dropping the pricing quickly as despite the historic low interest rates-foot traffic has been beyond slow.
Whats this home really worth? LETS LOOK AT THE “CALIFORNIA DREAMIN’ VALUE INDICATOR” (VALUE ON 01/01/2000 +1/3 COST OF RENOVATIONS SINCE)
Home sold new on 03/2000 so we will use that price
$489000 + (1/3 of 45k in renovations-being generous again) 15k= $504000 current value.
Good luck to the “lucky person” who picks up this Gem at a still inflated price- but quickly falling price. Maybe many individuals will start taking the cue from the show “Weeds”- start growing some stuff on the side to help pay for your mortgage and Jonesing lifestyles.